zpostcode
In search of alpha: Hard to prove; hard to sustain
Apr 5, 2025 9:21 AM

  

In search of alpha: Hard to prove; hard to sustain1

  It takes rare skill to capture “excess” returns.© Viktor/stock.adobe.com; Photo illustration Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.If you’re looking to invest in an actively managed fund, you probably have one goal in mind: to beat the market. You’re looking for added value above and beyond what a passive index fund can deliver.

  This added value comes in the form of a fund manager’s superior skill (or their perceived skill, anyway) in picking and managing stocks and other financial instruments. And there’s a word for that extra gain above the broader market’s return: alpha.

  Investors often talk about alpha. The fund management industry touts alpha. But is it real, measurable, and, most importantly, sustainable? Learn about the two types of alpha, how they’re measured and used (and misused), and judge for yourself.

  Raw alpha vs. Jensen’s alphaIn its simplest definition, alpha is excess return above a benchmark’s return. This is also called raw alpha.

  The S&P 500 returned 10% in a given year.A given fund returned 12% that same year. That extra 2% is alpha, plain and simple.

  But here’s where things get a bit more complicated. What if that fund took on more risks than the index itself? For example, what if it held more (or gave more weight to) volatile stocks, relative to the S&P 500?

  In that case, analysts might have expected even more from the fund. What does this mean? Although the fund beat the S&P 500, it should have returned even more because it took on more risk. There’s another term for this, and it’s called Jensen’s alpha.

  Put simply, Jensen’s alpha is excess return above what analysts were expecting, adjusted for risk and relative to the benchmark. But how do you know what analysts were expecting? For that, we turn to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), William Sharpe’s Nobel-winning formula that essentially says stock returns are a function of market risk—nothing else.

  Going back to the previous example, suppose the fund that returned 12% took on twice as much risk (2.0 beta in the CAPM formula) compared to the market (which returned 10% and had a 1.0 beta). Assume a 10-year Treasury yield (the risk-free rate) of 4%.

  But because it only returned 12%, the fund’s Jensen’s alpha would be 12 – 20 = -8%.

  Do you see the difference? The fund’s 12% return outperformed against the market measured in raw alpha, but it underperformed relative to CAPM expectations.

  Alpha as the manager’s skill?Funds list alpha to highlight the added value that their managers bring to the table; a fund’s outperformance is attributed to their skill. Without the fund manager, there would be no alpha.

  As you’d expect, funds with higher alphas tend to charge higher management or performance fees. But is a fund’s outperformance due solely to a manager’s skill? Not always. In fact, some critics argue that the notion of alpha is highly problematic. Let’s look at why.

  Where alpha may fall shortIf alpha is difficult for money managers to achieve, it may be just as hard to find funds that, despite their alpha figures, achieve “true alpha” on a consistent and sustainable basis. Here’s where alpha can get tricky.

  CAPM can be misleading. The CAPM model is based exclusively on market risk (beta) when forecasting returns, but other factors could have an effect. One famous example is the Fama-French three-factor model, which adds market capitalization and book value to market risk as determinants of fund return.  Excessive risk-taking. There are times when a fund manager achieves alpha by taking on more risk and being lucky. High-risk strategies can definitely boost returns if they happen to work. But critics would argue that adding risk is essentially adding beta, not alpha.Consistency over a long time period. One-time alpha isn’t enough. But what is enough? Two times, three times, four, or more? Try a decade or two—long-term periods that can demonstrate a manager’s skill across multiple economic cycles and bull/bear markets.  Manager and investment strategy changes. Funds change managers over time. Sometimes, a new manager will even change strategy. If alpha is associated with skill-based outperformance, then changes in manager or strategy might decrease the alpha’s validity.Manipulated benchmarks. Although “cherry-picking” and data manipulation should be disclosed to investors in the fund prospectus, portfolio managers have been known to switch benchmarks to deceptively boost the fund’s apparent alpha.The bottom lineSpotting a consistent alpha-generating fund manager is like finding a unicorn, and chasing alpha has become something of near-mythical pursuit, like the quest for the Holy Grail. This is not to say that true alpha doesn’t exist, but it can be hard to find and even harder to sustain over a meaningful period.

  Always keep in mind that past performance doesn’t indicate future results. Market conditions and economies are driven by dynamic, evolving, and often unpredictable factors. And if you need a final reminder, remember that investors in Bernie Madoff’s hedge fund believed him to be a pure alpha generator, but as it turned out, he was operating a massive Ponzi scheme. 

  ReferencesFama-French Three-Factor Model | corporatefinanceinstitute.comHow Mutual Funds Change Benchmarks to Manipulate Performance | clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu

Comments
Welcome to zpostcode comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Recommend >
Moon exploration
     Moon's far side from Luna 3, 1959 One of the first recorded views of the Moon's far side, part of a 29-photograph sequence taken by the Soviet Luna 3 spacecraft on October 7, 1959. Mare Smythii, which lies on the boundary between the near and far sides, is the circular dark patch below and left of center, and Mare...
List of African Countries’ Independence Dates
     African Renaissance Monument Unveiled in 2010 as part of the celebration of the 50th anniversary of Senegal's independence from France, the African Renaissance Monument in Dakar, Senegal, is a 164-foot (50-meter) bronze statue of a man, woman, and child and serves as a monument to Africa's renaissance. (more) List of African Countries’ Independence Dates Actions Share Share Share to...
hash table
  hash table computer science Actions Cite verifiedCite While every effort has been made to follow citation style rules, there may be some discrepancies. Please refer to the appropriate style manual or other sources if you have any questions. Select Citation Style MLA APA Chicago Manual of Style Copy Citation Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/topic/hash-table Give...
Financial benchmarks: Does your portfolio measure up or fall short?
     There's a whole universe of benchmarks from which to choose.© Yuichiro Chino—Moment/Getty ImagesSuppose you want to gauge how well your investment portfolio is doing. You’ll need some kind of a yardstick to measure its performance. This is where financial benchmarks come into play.   Much like a fund manager, you can compare your portfolio’s performance against a set of assets...
Information Recommendation
shilajit
  shilajit natural substance Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/science/shilajit Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/science/shilajit Also known as: mineral tar, mumijo, mumiyo, salajeet Written by Kara Rogers Kara Rogers is the senior editor of biomedical sciences at Encyclopædia Britannica, where she oversees a range of content from medicine and genetics to...
Zwarte Piet
     Zwarte Piet A soot-covered Zwarte Piet accompanying St. Nicholas in a parade in Nijmegen, Netherlands, in 2023. (more) Zwarte Piet legendary figure Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/topic/Zwarte-Piet Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/topic/Zwarte-Piet Also known as: Black Peter Written by Meg Matthias Meg Matthias is Senior Video Production Manager...
Sarah McBride
     Sarah McBride Delaware State Sen. Sarah McBride is a progressive Democrat running in 2024 for Delaware's seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. If she wins, she will become the first openly transgender member of Congress. (more) Sarah McBride American politician Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/biography/Sarah-McBride Share Share Share to social media Facebook...
We’wha
     We'wha A:Shiwi (Zuni) artist We'wha photographed between 1871 and 1896. (more) We’wha Shiwi artist Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/biography/Wewha Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/biography/Wewha Also known as: We’wah, We:wa, Wewhe Written by Laura Payne Laura Payne is a freelance writer whose work covers many topics. She is a...
Golden Triangle
     The Golden Triangle (more) Golden Triangle region, Southeast Asia Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/place/Golden-Triangle-region-Southeast-Asia Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/place/Golden-Triangle-region-Southeast-Asia Written by Laura Payne Laura Payne is a freelance writer whose work covers many topics. She is a former Wayne State University linguistics instructor. Laura Payne Fact-checked by The...
Studio 54
     Studio 54 The legendary New York City nightclub Studio 54 opened in April 1977. (more) Studio 54 nightclub, New York City, New York United States Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/topic/Studio-54 Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/topic/Studio-54 Written by Thad King Thad King was an editor at Encyclopædia Britannica for...
Ibrahim Prize
     The first Ibrahim Prize laureate Former Mozambican president Joaquim Chissano (right) receiving the first Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership, presented by Kofi Annan, the chair of the prize committee, Alexandria, Egypt, November 26, 2007. (more) Ibrahim Prize leadership award Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/topic/Ibrahim-Prize Share Share Share to social media Facebook...
decarbonization
     Decarbonization This climate-change mitigation solution is designed to reduce the production of greenhouse gases and remove excess amounts of greenhouse gases from Earth's atmosphere. (more) decarbonization Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/technology/decarbonization Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/technology/decarbonization Written by Nick Tabor Nick Tabor is a freelance journalist and the...