zpostcode
Tree rings reveal summer 2023 was the hottest in 2 millennia
Sep 7, 2024 11:06 PM

Last year's summer was the hottest in 2,000 years, ancient tree rings reveal.

Researchers already knew that 2023 was one for the books, with average temperatures soaring past anything recorded since 1850. But there are no measurements stretching further back than that date, and even the available data is patchy, according to a study published Tuesday (May 14) in the journal Nature. So, to determine whether 2023 was an exceptionally hot year relative to the millennia that preceded it, the study authors turned to records kept by nature.

Trees provide a snapshot of past climates, because they are sensitive to changes in rainfall and temperature. This information is crystalized in their growth rings, which grow wider in warm, wet years than they do in cold, dry years. The scientists examined available tree-ring data dating back to the height of the Roman Empire and concluded that 2023 really was a standout, even when accounting for natural variations in climate over time.

"When you look at the long sweep of history, you can see just how dramatic recent global warming is," co-author Ulf Bntgen, a professor of environmental systems analysis at the University of Cambridge in the U.K., said in a statement. The data indicated that "2023 was an exceptionally hot year, and this trend will continue unless we reduce greenhouse gas emissions dramatically," he said.

Temperatures recorded during the summer of 2023 exceeded those of the coldest summer in the past 2,000 years, in A.D. 536, by 7 degrees Fahrenheit (3.9 degrees Celsius). That relatively cool summer followed a volcanic eruption that dumped huge amounts of sunlight-blocking sulfur particles into the stratosphere, which triggered global cooling, according to the study.

Related: 'We were in disbelief': Antarctica is behaving in a way we've never seen before. Can it recover?

Bntgen and his colleagues also compared the tree-ring data with written temperature records from the 19th century. Climate change is evaluated against a baseline average temperature that prevailed before the Industrial Revolution, and it turns out that temperatures around 1850 were slightly colder than previously thought, the researchers found.

When they recalibrated the baseline temperature to reflect this, the researchers concluded that, in the Northern Hemisphere, the threshold set by the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 1.5 C (2.2 F) above pre-industrial levels has already been breached.

Three tourists stand close to a fan spraying nebulized water during summer 2023 in Rome, Italy.

With the recalibration, the researchers also estimated that the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2023 was an average 3.7 F (2 C) warmer than all the summers between 1900 and 1950. After 2023, the next hottest summer on record was 2016, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

"It's true that the climate is always changing, but the warming in 2023, caused by greenhouse gases, is additionally amplified by El Nio conditions," lead author Jan Esper, a professor of climate geography at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz in Germany, said in the statement.

RELATED STORIESThe 'safe' threshold for global warming will be passed in just 6 years, scientists say

Controversial climate change study claims we'll breach 2 C before 2030

Michael Mann: Yes, we can still stop the worst effects of climate change. Here's why.

El Nio conditions could last into early summer 2024, meaning the coming months may break last year's record, according to the study. Climate scientists forecast El Nio could quickly flip into the opposite atmospheric pattern of La Nia, but the switch probably won't diminish this summer's heat because the effects of La Nia would take time to kick in.

One limitation of the new study is that the results may only apply to the Northern Hemisphere, the authors noted, since that's where they sourced the tree-ring data. Data for the same period is sparse in the Southern Hemisphere, and the trees there may respond differently to fluctuations in the climate due to a large portion of that hemisphere being covered by oceans.

Comments
Welcome to zpostcode comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Recommend >
Project 2025
  Project 2025 Actions Cite verifiedCite While every effort has been made to follow citation style rules, there may be some discrepancies. Please refer to the appropriate style manual or other sources if you have any questions. Select Citation Style MLA APA Chicago Manual of Style Copy Citation Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/topic/Project-2025 Give Feedback Feedback...
Henry Winkler
  Henry Winkler American actor Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/biography/Henry-Winkler Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/biography/Henry-Winkler Also known as: Henry Franklin Winkler Written by Fred Frommer Fred Frommer is a sports historian, author, and writer who has written for a host of national publications. Fred Frommer Fact-checked by The Editors of...
Masoud Pezeshkian
  Masoud Pezeshkian president-elect of Iran Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/biography/Masoud-Pezeshkian Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/biography/Masoud-Pezeshkian Written by Adam Zeidan Adam Zeidan is an Assistant Managing Editor, having joined Encyclopædia Britannica in 2018. He covers a range of topics related primarily to the Middle East and North Africa. Adam Zeidan...
Sack of Rome
  Sack of Rome Roman history [410] Actions Cite verifiedCite While every effort has been made to follow citation style rules, there may be some discrepancies. Please refer to the appropriate style manual or other sources if you have any questions. Select Citation Style MLA APA Chicago Manual of Style Copy Citation Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL...
Information Recommendation
Neturei Karta
  Neturei Karta ultra-Orthodox Jewish group Actions Cite verifiedCite While every effort has been made to follow citation style rules, there may be some discrepancies. Please refer to the appropriate style manual or other sources if you have any questions. Select Citation Style MLA APA Chicago Manual of Style Copy Citation Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/topic/Neturei-Karta...
Joe Rogan
  Joe Rogan American comedian, actor, and podcaster Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/biography/Joe-Rogan Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/biography/Joe-Rogan Also known as: Joseph Rogan Written by Nicholas Gisonna Nick Gisonna started writing online in 2010 on his own website writing reviews of burgers and diners in New Jersey. Since then, he...
intensive animal farming
  intensive animal farming agriculture Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/technology/factory-farming Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/technology/factory-farming Also known as: factory farming Written by Jennifer Murtoff Jennifer Murtoff is a bilingual English-Spanish publishing professional with a master’s degree in Hispanic linguistics. Jennifer Murtoff, Michele Metych Michele has a B.A. in English from...
superhero
  superhero fictional character Actions Cite verifiedCite While every effort has been made to follow citation style rules, there may be some discrepancies. Please refer to the appropriate style manual or other sources if you have any questions. Select Citation Style MLA APA Chicago Manual of Style Copy Citation Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/art/superhero Give Feedback...
necrobotics
  necrobotics robotics Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/science/necrobiotics Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/science/necrobiotics Written by Anna Dubey Anna Dubey is a freelance writer at Encyclopædia Britannica. Anna Dubey Fact-checked by The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica Encyclopaedia Britannica's editors oversee subject areas in which they have extensive knowledge, whether from years...
digital twin
  digital twin virtual representation Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/technology/digital-twin Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/technology/digital-twin Written by Michael McDonough Michael McDonough was a media team intern at Encyclopaedia Britannica. He is expected to graduate in 2023 from Northwestern University. Michael McDonough Fact-checked by The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica Encyclopaedia Britannica's...
Matt de la Peña
  Matt de la Peña American writer Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/biography/Matt-de-la-Pena Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/biography/Matt-de-la-Pena Also known as: Matthew de la Peña Written by Joan Hibler Joan Hibler is a senior editor at Encyclopædia Britannica. Joan Hibler Fact-checked by The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica Encyclopaedia Britannica's editors oversee...
butterfly
  butterfly swimming Actions Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/sports/butterfly-swimming Share Share Share to social media Facebook X URL https://www.britannica.com/sports/butterfly-swimming Also known as: butterfly stroke Written and fact-checked by The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica Encyclopaedia Britannica's editors oversee subject areas in which they have extensive knowledge, whether from years of experience gained by working on that content...